Premier League clubs fear losing their fourth Champions League place

Another week of disappointment for English clubs in the Champions League has prompted fears that only three, rather than the current four, Premier League teams might qualify for Europe’s showpiece competition in the future.

Posted Friday, September 18, 2015 by theguardian.com

Luciano Narsingh celebrates after scoring the winner for PSV in their Champions League match with Manchester United.

English clubs are facing a very real threat to their fourth Champions League place because of a decline in European results. In the past three seasons England has had only two representatives in the Champions League quarter-finals and only one semi-finalist.

With Italy and Germany performing well in Europe, Premier League clubs are now nervously looking over their shoulders. There is a clear possibility that England could have only three clubs in the Champions League in 2017.

Could this be true?
Yes, but it still remains unlikely and would not take effect until the 2017-18 season. No matter what, three English teams will qualify automatically next season along with a fourth who must enter at the final qualifying round before the group stage. Should it change the following year it would be the first time since 2001-02 England have not had four clubs in the Champions League.

So what are the odds of that scenario occurring?
To reiterate, unlikely but it is far too early to make any predictions. There are way too many matches and potential permutations ahead and, in any case, any drop in coefficient ranking would not just be determined by the performances of English teams but those from Germany and Italy. The bottom line is that would take another season of English under-achievement and sustained Italian success to alter the status quo. Things should become a little clear in the spring.

How do they come up with these coefficients, though?
Every country is ranked on a coefficient score based on points gained from performances in the Champions League and Europa League over the past five years. The top three teams are given four Champions League places and the three countries beneath them three.

The coefficient is calculated by adding up the total number of ranking points gained by English clubs and then dividing them by the number of teams competing in both the Champions and Europa League. So if a country has four in the former competition and three in the latter, its total will be divided by seven. If it is four and four, the division is by eight.

That figure is then added to the results of the previous four seasons. England’s current problem is that the 2010-11 season when Manchester United reached the final and we generally did well in Europe will soon be irrelevant to our rankings.

So the Europa League is both relevant and important?
Most definitely. Our fairly dismal recent Europa League performances are part of the reason why England’s overall European ranking in the coefficient table has just slipped to third, behind the leaders, Spain, and second-placed Germany and ahead of Italy. With Southampton and West Ham already eliminated from this year’s Europa League, Premier League rivals should be cheering Liverpool and Spurs on.

How are points collected
Each team gets two ranking points for a win and one point for a draw – or one point and 0.5 a point for matches in the qualifying and play-off rounds. Clubs that reach the last 16, quarter-final, semi-final or final of the Champions League, or similar in the Europa League, are awarded an extra point for each round.

Additionally four points are awarded for participation in the group stage of the Champions League and four points for qualifying for the last 16. The most points collected in recent years were by Spain in 2013-14 when Atlético and Real Madrid reached the Champions League final and Sevilla won the Europa League.

So how many points do we and our rivals have at the moment?
As things stand Spain are on 86.142 at the top. Then come Germany on 67.606. England have 65.284. Italy are a bit behind with 61.105. Then it is Portugal on 45.082, France with 44.916 and Russia on 43.282.