Champions League final projection: Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Posted Tuesday, April 17, 2012 by YAHOO Sport

AccuScore is projecting a Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Super, Super Clasico Champions League final, but Bayern Munich is the most likely side to come away with the Champions League trophy. No, the computer isn't broken, but it does require some clarification.

Barcelona is the heaviest favorite to advance out of the semifinal round due to a combination of Chelsea's less-than-stellar domestic form and Barcelona's general dominance of everyone. Also, Barcelona has Lionel Messi, the best player in the game.

Real Madrid, however, is a slight favorite over Bayern Munich, but that matchup is nearly tossup. Still, Madrid has a slender edge, and so a Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Super Super Clasico finale is the most likely matchup for the May 19 final in Munich.

However, should Bayern beat Madrid to make the May match in Munich (a 47.30 percent chance), the German outfit would play the one-off Champions League final at home. According to the computer, Bayern Munich would be the favorite at the Allianz regardless of the opponent.

Unlike last year's Wembley Stadium final where Manchester United played Barcelona in England, Bayern wouldn't just be playing on home soil but it also would play the final at its home stadium, a rather significant advantage. As such, AccuScore gives the German side a healthy edge against both Barcelona and Chelsea if the it can advance past Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid, which is easier said than done.

AccuScore.com simulated each match 10,000 times based on domestic and Champions League team and player statistics in order to calculate probabilities for each team to win the first leg, advance to the final and win the Champions League. Visit AccuScore for all predictions for Champions League and other major European football leagues.

Probability Final Champions
Barcelona 64.00% 29.55%
Real Madrid 52.70% 25.29%
Bayern Munich 47.30% 34.78%
Chelsea 36.00% 10.38%
Goal Scorers: Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi … and Mario Gomez?

When it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo get obvious recognition as both constantly smash scoring records. However, when it comes to scoring on Champions League match days, Mario Gomez deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as the talented twosome.

How prolific has Mario Gomez been since taking over full first-team responsibilities at Bayern Munich? Gomez is leading the Bundesliga with 25 goals in 30 appearances this season. Last year, he put up 28 goals in 32 appearances – best in the Bundesliga by six goals (Papiss Demba Cisse was second at 22 goals).

In the Champions league, Gomez scored eight times in eight matches last term. This season, (the other) Super Mario already has 11 goals in nine continental appearances, which is second only to Messi's European record of 14 goals. Cristaino Ronaldo has eight tallies. Consequently, it should come as no surprise that the computer ranks the most likely scorers in the semifinal first leg as follows:

1. Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona) – 63.5%
2. Mario Gomez (FC Bayern Munich) – 58.4%
3. Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid CF) – 40.3%
4. Arjen Robben (FC Bayern Munich) – 37.5%
5. Alexis Sanchez (FC Barcelona) – 27.5%

Note: If he starts ,Didier Drogba is Chelsea's most likely scorer at 25.4 percent; Lampard is next most likely to score for the Blues. The Chelsea "old guard" is alive and well, it seems.

The main reason Gomez is projected higher than Ronaldo and comparable to Messi is that the German international has been especially clinical at the Allianz Arena this season. Gomez scored 10 of his 11 Champions League goals at home this season, and he has found the target in all but one Champions League home game this campaign (group stages to quarterfinals). In the second leg of the quarterfinals, Gomez came on in the 75th minute against Marseille after the tie was already decided and failed to score. He is not quick, fast or especially skilled with the ball at his feet, but somehow he consistently manages the final touch.

Recent Form

Bayern Munich effectively lost the Bundesliga title last weekend after a 1-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund. This weekend, Bayern rested regulars including Gomez, Ribery, Lahm, Toni Kroos and Luis Gustavo Dias. Bayern ended the Saturday match against Mainz at a 0-0 stalemate, but that result does not provide a proper indication of the strength of this side. Of all four sides involved, Bayern has the least to play for in the domestic league. Bayern is currently eight points back with three matches remaining. The Champions League is in full focus for the Germans.

Real Madrid fell behind 1-0 to Sporting Gijon this weekend, and the crowd at the Santiago Bernabeu grew worried that the La Liga title was slipping away. Coming into the match, Madrid had dropped points in three of its last six matches. However, Madrid's trio of goal scorers did their part as Higuain, Benzema and Ronaldo all found the target for a convincing 3-1 victory. Xabi Alonso was suspended on the weekend, so he should be fresh for a start in midfield against Bayern. Real Madrid currently holds a four-point lead in La Liga, but Los Blancos play at Camp Nou against Barcelona between the first and second leg in a match most expect Barcelona to win. La Liga will likely go down to the wire.

Chelsea won at Wembley on Sunday with Didier Drogba scoring a spectacular opening goal in the FA Cup semifinals. After a controversial second goal, the Blues opened up Tottenham by scoring three times in the final 13 minutes to cruise to a 5-1 victory. Now, Roberto Di Matteo has to make the tough decision of starting Fernando Torres, Didier Drogba or both. Chelsea is the only side that played on Sunday, meaning the players get one fewer day of rest than Barcelona. Also, the Blues face Arsenal between the first and second leg, a crucial tie in the race for the final Champions League spot. Chelsea is currently two points back of fourth place with five matches remaining.

Barcelona is the hottest side of the final four at the moment. Despite needing a second-half double from Messi to complete a 2-1 comeback against Levante on Saturday, the defending Spanish, European and World Club champion has won its last five matches by an aggregate score of 15-3. In between the first and second leg, Barcelona hosts Real Madrid in La Liga, a massively important tie to deciding the Spanish league. Barcelona is currently four points back of Real Madrid with five matches remaining.